The International Criminal Court released a statement on Tuesday rejecting Palestine's petition to investigate allegations of Israeli war crimes in the 2009 Gaza war, known as Cast Lead. With the fairly predictable decision, Israel avoids another round of international opprobrium. But there is also a symbolic meaning: another failure for Palestine's unilateral statehood bid. The decision is a clear political signal, not just a purely legal decision reflecting "objective" international norms. The Palestinians appealed to the Court over three years ago, immediately following the war, based on a provision that even states that are not members of the ICC can…

The country may be riveted by the social protests, but the September deadline is still approaching. When the Palestinians declare statehood and take their request to the UN, there are two things Israel could do, regardless of the (largely predictable) UN outcome. Israel could reject the Palestinian declaration – including by ignoring it – or recognize it. The latter is unlikely to impossible. What is likely to happen then? Here are a few possible scenarios for Israel’s response: If Israel officially rejects Palestinian independence, it could then either escalate the physical violence (see the trigger-fast response against unproven sources of…