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election polls

  • Final polls show Zionist Camp with biggest lead yet

    Herzog and Livni may have the upper hand over Netanyahu, but even if they win the election, they won't have an easy time putting together a coalition. The latest election polls published Friday show Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni's Zionist Camp leading Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party by four seats. According to Project61, an independent polling project that aggregates and attempts to correct biases in the major pre-election surveys, the Zionist Camp is currently polling at 24 seats as opposed to Netanyahu's 20 seats. According to Israeli election law, polls are not allowed to be published after Friday. While the polls…

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  • Will surprising results stop a status-quo Netanyahu-led government?

    Despite the surprising weakness of the Right-ultra-Orthodox bloc, the final result of the elections, according to exit polls, is still likely to be a status-quo Netanyahu-led government. Why? Because the big winner in this election, media personality Yair Lapid, is a vapid centrist who is likely to join Netanyahu’s coalition and make little noise on policy -- either on Israel-Palestine, or any other topic The exit-poll results are in, and Noam has an excellent summary of the headline figures. A lot of the attention, as actual results pour in through the night, will be focused on the balance between the…

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  • Understanding Israeli election polls, part II

    I would like to address some of the responses to my previous post ("It's all about the blocs: Understanding Israeli election polls"), since they raise an important issue regarding the difference between an analysis of ideology and political behavior. Several readers challenged my use of the right vs. left division of the entire political system in Israel, claiming it to be simplistic and not matching the ideology of some of the parties. Several examples were made, mostly regarding what I called the center-left bloc. As "Kolumn9" rightly noted, Kadima is an offspring of the Likud, and ideologically could just the…

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