Via Holes in the Net

UPDATE: A video showing protesters expose and confront an undercover policeman was added to this piece.

Tel Aviv rally for social justice, May 12 2012 (photo: Activestills)

Around 5,000 protesters in Rabin Square. took part yesterday (Saturday) night in what was labeled “the first social justice demonstration of the summer.” Smaller events took place in other Israeli cities. The protest was part of the international May 12 protest movement, and a live feed from similar rallies around the world was displayed in the square.

The demonstration was organized by a network of local activists, and not by the leaders of last year’s J14 movement. It also did not feature any speeches from politicians, though many of the activists who spoke denounced the recent unity deal between Kadima and the Likud. One of the popular slogans in the rally was “the entire nation is the opposition.”

At least 10 protesters were detained by police after the rally. According to the police, protesters were trying to block central roads in Tel Aviv.

UPDATE: During the demonstration in Tel Aviv, one of the protesters exposed an undercover policeman in the crowd. After following him for several minutes, the protester was approached by another plainclothesman who threatened him with arrest. You can see the entire exchange (in Hebrew) in This video:

Here are some more images from the rally.

Protesters march in Tel Aviv, May 12 2012 (photo: Oren Ziv/Activestills)

Social justice protest in Tel Aviv (photo: Oren Ziv/Activestills)

A sign in social protest rally in Tel Aviv, May 12 2012. Hebrew text - "free papers = brain wash" refers to the freebie Israel Hayom, which is known for its support for Prime Minister Netanyahu (photo: Oren Ziv, Activestiils)

Protesters confront police in Tel Aviv, May 12 2012 (photo: Yotam Ronen/Activestills.org)

Protester arrested following May 12 rally in Tel Aviv (photo: Oren Ziv/Activestills)

Congratulations to Benjamin Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz. I’ve been fond of Mofaz for a while now. Ever since he served as defense minister in Ariel Sharon’s government during the disengagement from Gaza, Mofaz has been building himself up as a serious politician and perhaps even a statesman. It was during the disengagement that Mofaz morphed into a political dove, and despite the takeover of Israeli politics by the right-wing settler movement, he has stood his ground.

Then in 2009, during a period of political stagnation, he introduced a gutsy plan for a peace process and when asked, did not rule out negotiating with Hamas. In his plan, Mofaz emphasized that “our control over another people, and the burden of responsibility and occupation, will come to an end in a clear and concrete way…” The plan also contains that magic number, the one that terrorizes Israeli politicians: ’67.

Shaul Mofaz, as a former IDF chief of staff, could have placed himself comfortably within the ideological zone of typical generals-cum-politicians – like Ehud Barak, Moshe (Bogi) Ya’alon and others – but he opted not to. In early 2011, even before the social protests, Mofaz began developing a plan for social-economic reforms with a team of eight young researchers from the economic, legal, and public policy spheres, led by Yishai Mishor. The plan called to increase in the employment of Israeli Arabs and the ultra-Orthodox, make higher education more accessible, offer housing solutions and a more equal health plan, and more.

In that plan, Mofaz did not shy away from slaughtering one of the most (un)sacred cows in Israel’s history: the defense budget. “As head of planning in the IDF, Chief of Staff, and Defense Minister, I have resolved that we can effectively decrease the defense budget by NIS 4 billion per year, without damaging the IDF’s readiness,” he said in an interview to TheMarker (Hebrew), an economic daily newspaper.

Quietly, step-by-step, Mofaz has also proved himself skilled at politics. In his first campaign for the leadership of his party, he lost the internal Kadima elections to Tzipi Livni by a slim margin. In the second recent round, he claimed victory in a knockout. While everyone eulogized him as the tragic future loser of the 2012 elections, he saved Kadima and himself, and prevented – together with Netanyahu – unnecessary elections, which ultimately would have maintained the status quo.

All the frustrated political opponents and journalists who feel “tricked” into believing that elections were around the corner are left with little to do but obsess about Mofaz’s “credibility” problem. He said he wouldn’t leave the Likud party, and he left. He said he wouldn’t join the Netanyahu government, and he joined.

But so what? Who cares if Mofaz is in Kadima or in Likud? What exactly is the difference between them anyway? What matters is policy, not politics, and Mofaz deserves credit as a politician with a clear-cut agenda. It’s only beneficial that as of today his agenda is now part of the coalition.

Up to now, former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni got the credit for being credible – because she did not join the Netanyahu government, refusing to give billions of shekels to the ultra-Orthodox. But Livni is the one who stole votes from the left with the Kadima campaign “Either Tzipi or Bibi” then did little as opposition; under her leadership Kadima was among the initiators of the “Boycott Law”; under her watch, Kadima initiated and helped pass a draconian amendment to the libel law and the selection committees law (which de facto prevents Arabs from living in certain communities) and let’s not forget the Basic Law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People. After repeatedly abusing and neglecting her role as opposition leader and misguiding her supporters, her bitter response to the Netanyahu-Mofaz move, would be outrageous, if it hadn’t been so insignificant.

Shelly Yacimovich and Yair Lapid are considered the two big losers from the coalition deal.  But neither has a sincere or bold agenda anyway. As an MK, Yacimovich has not touched upon the occupation, nor the peace process, the anti-democratic legislation, nor the Arab minority in Israel. She is a social-democrat whose emphasis on the democratic side of the equation is marginal. It’s not clear how she will promote significant economic changes, since she is unwilling to confront her stronghold of support, the Histadrut.  On the other hand, Yair Lapid brought no message at all to the table. Lapid is waning, without leaving a trace of policy or ideology on any issue.

Netanyahu and Mofaz can do great things in the coming year, ranging from legislating an alternative to the unsuccessful Tal Law for drafting Haredim into the army, through to the peace process, to which I believe Mofaz is sincerely committed. Yet the most significant change this duo can undertake is to break away from the suffocating grasp of the settler right, which is threatening to destroy Israeli democracy. This will be the real test for Netanyahu and Mofaz. The rest doesn’t matter nearly as much.

Roni Schocken is a candidate in the Tel Aviv-Berkeley LL.M. program (2012) and in the Harvard Business School MBA program (2014). He has clerked for the Supreme Court and served as the director of the government relations department in The Abraham Fund Initiatives.

Protestors expressed shock and anger over the fact that Mofaz led the opposition party into the government just days after announcing he would never join Netanyahu’s government, and accused both the prime minister and Kadima chairman of being liars and “shady dealers,” more interested in their own seats of power than the interests of the country.

Protestor in Tel Aviv holding a sign with the faces of Netanyahu and Mofaz that says: "Combinators', slang for shady dealers (Photo: Activestills)

Six people were arrested at the protest in front of Tel Aviv’s Habima Theater, among them Haaretz municipal journalist Ilan Lior,  Tel Aviv city council member Yoav Goldring, and a photographer with the free daily newspaper Israel Hayom. According to police the protest was organized without permit, and thus constituted illegal assembly.

Haaretz journalist Ilan Lior told Walla news (Hebrew) that he asked the police to cross the street in order to see what was going on and was aggressively rushed into a police car and arrested.

While according to a Haaretz poll, a majority of the Israeli public see the deal as motivated by personal gain and not the stability of the country, Israel Hayom released a poll Wednesday stating that Netanyahu’s popularity had increased since the deal, with 39.8 percent of the public approving of the deal, slightly more than the 31.9% who oppose it.

It remains to be seen whether the new government deal will help reignite the J14 “social justice” protests from last summer. Protests are planned around the country this Saturday May 12.

Here is a video showing more footage from the protest Tuesday night:

Read more:
Netanyahu the strongest prime minister since David Ben-Gurion
Did Mofaz sell himself short, or does he know something we don’t?
The irreparable damage of Netanayahu-Mofaz fiasco
Coalition deal’s bright side: Days numbered for rotten government
Through deal, Bibi buys ‘industrial peace’ for Iran war 

With 94 Knesset Members behind him, Benjamin Netanyhu is now the strongest prime minister in Israeli history since David Ben-Gurion, the founding father of the country. Netanyahu’s Likud party alone has more seats than all the opposition parties combined. The opposition’s 26 seats are not even enough to call an unscheduled Knesset session – and even this number is misleading, because it includes the far-right Ichud Leumi party, which is not part of the government but so far has supported it.

There have been slightly larger governments in Israeli history – the three national unity coalitions that ruled between ’84 and ’90 – but these governments were the result of a balance of power between Likud and Labor that forced the two sides to cooperate. Today’s mega-coalition is built around one man and one party – an unprecedented situation since the early days of the state. Netanyahu and the Likud are so strong, that Knesset speaker Reuven Rivlin, himself a Likud member, expressed concern over the power of the executive branch and the lack of sufficient parliamentary supervision from now on.

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If one good thing can come out of this government, it’s the end of the myth according to which Israeli peace policy was hijacked by radical settlers. The settlements and the settlers almost never had major bargaining power in the Knesset – they are more the result of the occupation than the reason for it – and now they are weaker than ever. Netanyahu has no more excuses. Neither the settlers nor the left could get in his way. He is stronger than Ariel Sharon was during the disengagement from the Gaza Strip, stronger than Rabin was when he signed the Oslo Accord, stronger than Barak when he pulled out from South Lebanon and stronger than Begin was when he signed the peace treaty and handed back the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt.

Netanyahu can leave the West Bank or annex it. He can bypass the Supreme Court, change the system of government, come up with any voting reform he wants, change relations between the state and the religious establishment, recognize reform and conservative Rabbis or start a war. None of his coalition partners have any power over him, since he could get rid of any party and still keep his Knesset majority.

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This huge government is no political accident. It represents the current zeitgeist in Israel. Except for 12 Knesset members from three left wing parties, the entire Jewish public is united in support of the current status quo of occupation and settlements. In the Forward, J.J. Goldberg wrote that the new unity government is a victory for the peace camp, but it’s no more than extreme wishful thinking; a desire to see in Israel something that’s simply not there. In fact, the Palestinian issue is only mentioned briefly in the agreement between Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz and Netanyahu, in a line that even avoids mentioning a Palestinian state. Article 9 to the agreement (Hebrew, PDF) states that:

The government will work to renew the diplomatic process and to resume negotiations with the Palestinian authority. The two parties agree on the need to keep Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, and on the need to maintain defensible borders.

(The last sentence is Israeli code for a rejection of the ’67 borders.)

When it comes to the Palestinian issue, democracy in Israel is meaningless. There is no internal debate, no peace process and no peace camp.

Millions of Palestinians are living under Israeli control. Most of them have no voting rights and no say over their future. The million or so who can vote never had their parties take part in the government. The current coalition highlights the absurdity of the status quo: (Almost) the entire Jewish public is represented in the government, and none of the Palestinians have any say in the decision making process. Again and again Israelis make up their mind – with a huge majority – to withhold civil rights from the Palestinians under their control, and call it democracy.

Read more:
Did Mofaz sell himself short, or does he know something we don’t?
The irreparable damage of Netanayahu-Mofaz fiasco
Coalition deal’s bright side: Days numbered for rotten government
Through deal, Bibi buys ‘industrial peace’ for Iran war 

Let’s begin with the positive sides of the Netanyahu-Mofaz deal. The weak joke named Yair Lapid won’t last 18 more months, so the danger the Israeli public will once more waste precious votes on a seasonal feel-good party is lessened. Lapid whined about the deal this morning (Hebrew), though one can hardly understand why. Lapid said before that he would join any  future government, and denounced former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni for not joining Netanyahu’s. So why the bee in his bonnet? Then again, this is Lapid. If you’re looking for consistency or logic, you’re looking at the wrong place.

Kadima, a party whose motto may well have been, “We took corruption out of Likud (and brought it to a new home),” also seems to be finished. Why would anyone vote for it again? During the 2009 elections, Livni managed to con the voters into believing she would prevent a Netanyahu government. Livni is out of office, but the party is now in Netanyahu’s lap. If Kadima was looking at 10 seats before Mofaz’s latest schtick, it has now sunk near the level of Ehud Barak’s Atzmaut party (which polls at zero seats). The party was created in order to provide a docile platform for Ariel Sharon on his last days. One of its founders (Meir Sheetrit) has proudly stated that it has no ideology, and it has provided a safe haven for some of the most opportunistic and repulsive of Israeli politicians (hello again, Shimon Peres and Dahlia Itzik). Given all this, the fact that it still exists is impressive. Its seats are expected to be scattered among other parties, and assuming Lapid won’t survive for long, the new Israeli political map is likely to look very interesting.

Mofaz barely survived his earlier resounding flip-flop, an episode when a letter he sent his Likud faithful in late 2005, promising them he will always stay in the party and terming it “our home,” reached them a day after his defection to Kadima. No politician can survive two such moves. Mofaz is shameless enough that yesterday he had the temerity to attack Labor’s Shelly Yachimovich and blame her of “conspiring with Netanyahu” (Hebrew).

Like many other citizens, I gawked at my screen today, and muttered my WTFs. Yesterday, we were facing elections; Netanyahu was swaggering, declaring he wasn’t afraid. Turns out he is, after all. The fact that he lied to us about elections went almost unmentioned; we have grown used to the fact our prime minister deceives us on a daily basis. Even the fact that the Machiavelli behind the Mofaz deal was Natan Eshel, who left the Prime Minister’s Office after semi-confessing to the sexual harassment of a fellow worker, didn’t garner too much attention.

My first thought upon seeing the news was that Mofaz is a spineless worm, lacking any credibility; the second was that he was probably the worst politician in the history of Israel. Ehud Barak, with five nameless MKs, shook Netanyahu down for four ministries, among them the all-important Ministry of Security (aka Ministry of Defense). Mofaz, with almost six times that number of MKs (and more MKs than Likud has), managed to grab just a puny ministry without portfolio and the meaningless title of senior vice premier.

The idea that Kadima may merge again with Likud may have worked five years ago, but Likud is much too right wing these days for that, and Likud MKs would derail any such plan out of their own interests. So either Mofaz was exceedingly stupid, or he was exceedingly terrified, and knew his political career was over: that he won the Kadima primaries only to lose 20 seats and be remembered as the loser who killed the party – a part traditionally reserved in Israeli politics for Shimon Peres.

Except that in Israeli history, there is a precedent for the head of a large party who joins a national unity government and takes only a ministry without portfolio: Menachem Begin, who entered Levi Eshkol’s national unity government in the weeks before the Israeli offensive of the Six Day War. Begin argued he should join the government out of responsibility to the nation. This period in the government helped transform Begin, who was at the time described by the establishment-controlled media as a flesh eating demon – Ben Gurion made a habit of comparing him to Hitler, and would not refer to him by name, only as the “MK sitting next to MK Bader” – and grant him the legitimacy which, a decade later, would be essential to his electoral victory.

Mofaz, who has already served as Minister of Security and Minister of Transportation, is not in need of such legitimacy. He is a part of the establishment, not an outsider looking for a way in. So why is he joining the Netanyahu government on terms so similar to Begin’s in 1967?

Perhaps because he is indeed Israel’s most inept politician. But we should consider the possibility that, like Begin, he knows (as head of the opposition) that Israel is about to launch a fateful attack, and knows that what looked this morning like the worst act of political opportunism since Shimon Peres lost one time too many and left Labor for Kadima, may appear two weeks from now in a totally different light: as providing the government with aid at its hour of greatest need.

Let’s just hope he turns out to be a doofus after all.

Read more:
Netanyahu strongest prime minister since David Ben-Gurion
Elections called off; Kadima joins huge Netanyahu coalition
Coalition deal’s bright side: Days numbered for rotten government
The irreparable damage of Netanyahu-Mofaz fiasco
Through deal, Bibi buys ‘industrial peace’ for Iran war

“Honesty is such a lonely word
Everyone is so untrue”

— Billy Joel

When lying is something to boast about

Don’t get me wrong – there are a few things that could be good about the Bibi Netanyahu-Shaul Mofaz move that stunned us all this morning.

For example, it will give some more time for the opposition to get its act together, most probably bring about the evaporation of the pseudo-party known as Kadima and basically get rid of Yair Lapid. I can’t be honest and say these are bad things.

Remember that word. “Honest.”

But if that’s why you’re OK with this move, than you’re just not looking at the big picture. The big picture isn’t about which guy won and who made a more brilliant move. The big picture is the ever-widening gap between the public and the politicians it elects.

The big picture is the disgusting politics, reaching a new low. A political sphere that has lost any credibility whatsoever.

To think that the head of the opposition (for only a few days) could go on a rant in the Knesset calling PM Netanyahu a liar in March, and then join forces with him in May is simply outrageous.

And here’s what Mofaz wrote on his facebook wall on March 3 (my translation):

“Listen closely: I will not enter Bibi’s government. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not after I take the leadership of Kadima on the 28th of March. This is a bad, failing and deaf government, and the Kadima that I will lead will replace it in the next elections. Clear enough?”

To think that the head of the opposition can write that on his Facebook page in March and then sign a deal with Netanyahu in May – is spitting in the face of the public.

And Bibi, as prime minister, talking to the public, the press and during the Likud conference a few days ago about the elections – all the while never even intending to go to elections? You have to not give a hoot about the public to pull a trick like that. What a poker face. What hutzpah a guy has to have to even be able to do that! And not crack under the pressure!

The damage these two have done is irreparable. How can anyone take any politician, even those with good intentions (and there are a few!) seriously now?

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#J14 and #Occupy

It’s this gap between the public and its elected officials that is precisely what #J14 and #Occupy are about.

Let me tell you something: there are a lot of analysts out there who are going to tell you, “Hey, calm down! It’s politics! This is all fair and square, it’s how you play the game!”

Bullshit. Sure, politics are dirty – but even politics have to have a limit, a red line, a certain connection to reality. It’s not some kind of different planet where other rules apply. Where you can lie and be considered savvy at the same time. Where the better liar you are, the farther you go. Where the more you disrespect the people, the longer you rule.

What is this, Russia?

And no, I’m not being naive. Because this is exactly what #J14 and #Occupy are coming to change.

While a whopping 80 percent of the Knesset is now sitting in the coalition, people may soon be surprised to find out that the opposition in the public, outside, is a lot higher than 20 percent.

Now we’ll have to see how this move will affect the renewal of #J14. Will it become more political? Will it be led by Labor? There were those who thought this summer would be smaller – but will people now even be angrier? And if it does turn political, is this a good thing? These questions will be answered sooner than later.

But there is a sense that now that Kadima has joined the coalition, the only ones left in the opposition – are the people.

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Spitting in the face of women

Any person who gives a damn about women’s rights should be outraged at this deal, seeing as how Natan Eshel was the main architect of this fiasco. For those of you who forgot, Eshel was removed from his position as head of the Prime Minister’s Office after he admitted to holding “too close” a relationship with a female colleague, photographed beneath her skirt with his cellphone (apparently during Netanyahu’s speech in Congress) and went through her emails.

This man, despite everything, is still calling the shots.

And a lot of people are just, “oh well, whatcha gonna do?” with it.

I’m not “oh well” with this at all.

Spitting in my face, in the public’s face – and most of all, Bibi is spitting in the face of women.

Hopefully, the women of the opposition will spit back.

Not literally, of course.

Shelly Yachimovich leading Labor, Zehava Galon leading Meretz, and Tzipi Livni (who may join somehow, one way or another).

I have my issues with all three (quite a few, actually), but after last night, this trio looks like a dream compared to the disgusting male, macho, Major Lt. General, Chief of Staffs, good ‘ole boy politics of this morning.

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If you’re so smart?

Netanyahu is proving to be one of the smartest and slickest politicians this country has seen since it was born. With his latest moves, he’s leaving Ariel Sharon, Shimon Peres and others in his tracks.

Which makes you wonder – if the guy is so smart, so wily a politician, getting whatever he wants, how is it that he is so weak on the diplomatic front with the Arab world?

If you ask me, it’s just further proof the guy can – but just doesn’t want to.

And it doesn’t end there: Now we know that Netanyahu could not only care less about Palestinians, he couldn’t give a hoot about Israelis, either.

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Winners, losers

There was a widespread assumption that these elections were a done deal, that Bibi would stay in charge. But, some polls were showing a slight movement. Lapid was biting a bit into Lieberman’s base, the right wing bloc was losing 1-2 mandates. Not enough, of course. But in four months in Israel, with the social protests coming – I think anything could have happened. Don’t know if I would have put my money where my mouth is, but still – if last night proves anything, it’s that nothing’s a done deal in Israeli politics.

But that’s old news now.

Yair Lapid must have had a hissy fit this morning. This is good. We like to see Yair Lapid have hissy fits.

He might still try to make it till the elections in Fall 2013, but I doubt he has that kind of strength to last it out. But who knows…?

Same goes for Aryeh Deri. Can he hold it out? Probably better chances for him than Lapid.

Anyway, Lapid out of the game is a good thing. Because he’s all hot air. Yet, I still would have preferred him in the Knesset to a 96-seat coalition led by fascists. (Did I mention you only need 80 MKs to overturn a Basic Law? Yeah, very positive, this move of Bibi and Mofaz. Go on, show me how this group of fascists, who went on a total assault on democracy when they were only 65 MKs is now a good thing. Show me!)

Kadima will lose even more. The similarity between this move and the one Netanyahu pulled earlier with Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Haatzmaut is striking. Both were done because Barak and Mofaz saw the end was near – and they did all they could to delay it just a bit longer, no matter what the price. To credibility, to truth, to integrity.

Kadima will vanish into thin air, or be gobbled up by the Likud. Either way, the Big Bang of Israeli politics that Ariel Sharon began is slowly coming to an end.

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More taxes

The agreement between Mofaz and Netanyahu calls for “an emergency budget.” That’s finance lingo for “more taxes.”

Yippee!

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The Yom Kippur of Israeli media?

You have to hand it to Netanyahu and Mofaz – they kept it silent, according to some reports, for at least a week. Not one reporter managed to get a sniff of this one. And this isn’t some military action, some kind of secret intelligence operation – this is politics. Where everybody talks. And leaks (and reeks).

I’ve heard some colleagues call it the Yom Kippur of Israeli media. I wouldn’t go that far, but… it’s pretty embarrassing.

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To sum things up…

For me, this is the slimiest move I’ve seen in Israeli politics.

Ever.

It literally made me nauseous.

And as I said above, there may be some good things that come out of this. But ultimately, the price we, the citizens, the people, have to pay for merely a possibility of a stronger left-wing bloc, the possibility of a louder opposition, the possibility of a stronger #J14 – that price is too high.

Buying possibilities by giving up on the credibility of the whole system?

I’d rather gamble in Vegas.

Why does a national leader decide to scrap new elections that he and everyone else knows he’s going to win by a landslide, which is what Bibi did last night? Because he’s got important work to do and he wants what’s called “industrial peace” – or, as Netanyahu himself put it, “stability.” Our national leader wants to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities and he’s waiting for the right opportunity to do so - when the Obama administration is hard put to stop him, meaning sometime between now and the November 2 U.S. presidential elections. Starting such a war is going to require every gram of attention and effort Bibi can call forth, and he doesn’t want the pressure of elections and forming a new government as (huge) distractions, which he would have had from now into October if he’d gone ahead with elections in September. Now, without those elections and with an absolutely unshakable coalition, he can give his full concentration to saving Israel from annihilation, as he sees it.

The argument that he made the deal with Kadima for domestic political reasons doesn’t wash. Domestic political reasons – mainly the growing public pressure to draft the haredim (ultra-Orthodox), who were vital to his coalition government  - made perfect sense for why he would go to early elections, as he seemed certain to do until very late last night. With elections ahead and thus no need to worry about preserving his coalition, he could campaign all summer on drafting the haredim, then, after the elections, water the plan down to nothing, thereby keeping his haredi allies content.

So if Bibi had just wanted to solve his domestic political problems, he would have gone ahead and called early elections. But then he would have been preoccupied with them for the next six months. By deciding against early elections, he’s keeping his calendar free. This is going to be a very, very busy time for him. He’s got a big project to finish, one he’s been talking about over and over and over for more than a decade. He doesn’t want anything to get in the way.

And if Netanyahu had done the expected thing and called new elections, that, too, would have been because he thought it would give him a freer hand to bomb Iran. He’s not worried about political survival – one way or another, with elections or without, he’s king of the hill and nobody can knock him off. No, he has a mission of national survival to accomplish sometime in the coming months, before it’s too late, and all his calculations are guided by his sacred duty to fulfill that mission. Everything else is commentary.

The morning media conversations obsessed about what a horrible move this was, perhaps anti-democratic, a dirty trick (“nauseating” was a favored description) and, insisted one veteran Knesset television reporter, it tramples the will of the people.

I don’t trust the righteous anger on behalf of the people. The bitter accusations that this is a deal based on “personal interests” smack of bitter personal interests.

There are actually various reasons why this probably a good thing – or at least no worse than the (now counterfactual) potential results of an election.

1. The main towering advantage of postponing the elections until late 2013 is that it ensures only another year and a half of one of the worst governments Israel has ever had – a government that drove hundreds of thousands to the streets in economic desperation, pushed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict past the point of no return, and explicitly set out to mutilate Israel’s democratic process and what remained of its democratic character. If elections were held in four months, all polls bar none showed a resounding Likud victory, the same majority for the right-wing bloc, and ergo – probably a very similar government for another four years. Whatever terrible damage a super-sized coalition majority can do – it’s better to have this for 18 months, than for up to four more years.

2. The elections were designed to usurp another social protest, with the one-year anniversary coming up. I don’t know what kind of showing the public will or won’t make – but now there can be no excuse that the elections are a replacement for protest. Further, the social protesters made colorful headlines but bad politicians. After nearly a year, not a single grassroots party has emerged fully-baked for elections, unless one counts silver-spoon Yair Lapid. Truly new political formations apparently need the extra year and a half to organize.

3. With apologies to all the commentators who see themselves as valiant voices of the public, I didn’t need recent surveys to tell me that the majority (62 percent in a Channel 2 survey just last week – Hebrew) didn’t want elections. The social protesters, to my dismay, were not revolutionaries: they clung to Netanyahu for his full-on go-nowhere status quo approach on the conflict, and just needed him to move over a little to the left on social-economic issues, because in their minds, well-being and the conflict are completely unrelated. It’s hard to see how the deal is anti-democratic, with the two largest parties in the Knesset leading the country (however much I personally dislike them). Kadima’s low poll scores should not be confused with the 2009 election results.

4. Labor now has the chance to show if it’s made of anything – by reviving the phantom opposition. I admit that I’ve been skeptical of new party leader Shelly Yacimovich; while she has branded herself successfully as an active parliamentarian on social/economic themes, I think anyone who doesn’t keep the Israeli-Palestinian conflict front and center on the Israeli priorities is doing a historical disservice to the country, its people and the region. Tzipi Livni was a profound disappointment as opposition leader. Not only was she complicit in the government’s ruinous behavior by her silence, but under her leadership, the party initiated some of the worst anti-democratic legislation. For three years, Israel has had no opposition; Labor is now positioned to revive the concept.

5. Iran: Some of my colleagues think that this is a launching platform for a strike on Iran. I don’t agree – Netanyahu had all the platform he needed in Israel before this too, and if anything, Mofaz has been cautious about the Iran strike. (Although why believe anything he says anymore? He also called Netanyahu a flat-out liar and said he would never go into a coalition with him.) The point is, sadly, I don’t think the prospects are changed. Israel will have to come to its senses with or without the kumbaya coalition.

There are alas many dangers and outrages involved in this development too. I’ll bet anything the new government will continue to authorize settlement expansion, and legalize unlawful West Bank neighborhoods slated for evacuation. Further, I loathe the feeling of a male takeover: Livni out, Kadima in, Shelly snuffed out, and not to mention that the whole deal was facilitated by the prime minister’s crony Natan Eshel, who recently left office in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal.

But this government’s days are limited.

This was the shortest election cycle in history: On Sunday, Likud brought to a Knesset vote a bill moving elections up to September 4, officially launching a four-month campaign season. Less then 48 hours later, the elections were cancelled. Kadima, it was announced, will join Netanyahu’s coalition, and Israelis will only go to the polls a year and a half from now, in October 2013. Since the legislation of the elections bill wasn’t complete, there wasn’t even any need for a second and third Knesset vote.

According to the agreement between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima’s newly elected leader, Shaul Mofaz, the 2013 elections will herald a different system of government – probably one giving more power to the executive branch, either in the form of a direct vote for prime minister, or securing the position of prime minister for the leader of the Knesset’s largest party.

The two sides also agreed to promote a new arrangement by the end of July regarding national service for the ultra-Orthodox and Palestinian citizens. In exchange, Mofaz will be given a ministerial post in the government, and Kadima’s 28 Knesset members will join the coalition.

Netanyahu is now the leader of a record-breaking coalition (*) of 94 MKs (out of the Knesset’s 120), a Putin-like support network that buffers him on both sides, left and right, enabling controversial moves that include a possible strike in Iran. As demonstrated by recent statements by the former heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet, there is strong opposition to an attack from within the security establishment, and being backed by such a huge Knesset majority could help Netanyahu and Barak secure political support if indeed they decide to launch an attack.

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This political maneuver will be remembered for years, like “the brilliant move” that led to the fall of Rabin in 1977, or Sharon’s split of the Likud that resulted in the forming of Kadima. The announcement on the national unity government came so late that Israel’s two biggest tabloids – the centrist Yedioth Ahronoth and the pro-Netanyahu Israel Hayom – ran a second morning edition. Yet while political pundits are praising Netanyahu this morning for his newfound political skills, it’s important to remember that elections are still not that far off, and that the political challenges facing the Israeli leadership – ranging from the Palestinians to the social protest – remain unchanged.

What made this move possible? In my opinion, there were two elements at play: Kadima crashed in the polls after Mofaz’s victory in the party’s primaries a couple of months ago, and the new party leader was under considerable pressure to give its 27 Knesset members another year in the parliament. Mofaz probably hopes that the coming months will help him position himself as a national leader, but I am not sure that the Israeli public will ever look favorably upon someone who changed his position so many times. Still, stopping the steady rise of other opposition leaders – most notably, former Channel 2 anchorman Yair Lapid – probably makes this move worthwhile for Mofaz.

Prime Minister Netanyahu for his part must have had second thoughts about elections, especially since all recent polls had him winning the exact same Knesset majority he has now. At the height of his popularity, Netanyahu seems unable to break the 30-something seat threshold; ultimately, he had more to lose than to gain in elections.

The final push for the new agreement was probably yesterday’s High Court ruling on the evacuation of the Ulpana neighborhood in the settlement of Beit El, built on private Palestinian land. With elections around the corner, this would have become for Netanyahu a public showdown with either the settlers or with the court – and possibly both. By postponing the elections, the prime minister has bought himself some time to deal with the crisis.

It remains to be seen what effect this political drama will have on Israeli policy. Except for the first Lebanon war, the Israeli right has never initiated large-scale military operations while ruling over a narrow coalition. With both Mofaz and Barak on his side, Netanyahu might be more comfortable with the use of military force against Iran’s nuclear facilities and elsewhere.

It’s true that Shaul Mofaz has expressed serious doubts regarding the strike in the past, but Kadima’s leader also said that he would never join Netanyahu’s “bad” government, and even called the prime minister “a liar.” Mofaz has demonstrated again and again that at any given moment, he prefers the immediate political interest, so he cannot really be trusted to lead the opposition to the attack, this time from the inside.

The new government also gives Netanyahu room to maneuver on the Palestinian issue, but developments on that front are not very likely. Nothing will happen before the U.S. elections in November, and right after those take place, Israel will finally enter its own elections year. This time, even Netanyahu won’t be able to postpone them.

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(*) UPDATE (following questions from readers): This is the largest coalition in the last couple of decades but not in Israeli history: a couple of unity governments in the eighties were even larger.