Ben Caspit, diplomatic correspondent for the Israeli daily Maariv, reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to call early elections in Israel was the result of the assessment by leaders of AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby in Washington, that President Barack Obama would be reelected in 2012.
Netanyahu’s coalition surprised the political system last week when it was made public that the the next elections would take place only four months from now, on September 4 (elections periods in Israel are usually much longer). By early November, when the U.S. elections take place, the new Israeli government will already be sworn in.
Caspit writes (my translation):
Netanyahu’s surprising announcement on the early primaries in the Likud, which fell on his party’s senior member like thunder on a cloudless day, came three days after a discrete meeting he held with the chiefs of AIPAC, that estimated, based on polls, that Barack Obama would also be the next president.
Bibi knew he can’t campaign when Obama is in his second term. This [would be] a dangerous gamble.
The Israeli elections, it should be noted, will take place during the Democratic National Convention. Instead of the U.S. president possibly playing a role - deliberately or not – in the Israeli elections, Netanyahu will get a chance to play a part in the American one.
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aristeides
It would be good for the US if Lieberman’s party were elected.
ginger
@aristeides – my sentiments exactly, there could not better Israeli to preside over the dismantling of Israeli Apartheid than Avigdor Lieberman.
Lieberman is the poster child of Settler-run, Apartheid-policy Israel.
He’s a one man recruiting drive for BDS
He’s the Israeli Borat, and all his settler cousins are his village cousins
Mareli
Bibi would be wise to tread lightly here. Most Americans do not care for input from foreign leaders into their elections, and anything he might say could backfire. Any precipitate action regarding Iran would also be foolhardy, since if Obama does win (as is likely) he will remember any stupid unnecessary risks taken by anyone, even the Israelis.
XYZ
Mareli-
I might add that Israelis do not care for input from foreign leaders in THEIR elections, either.
Rowan Berkeley
I read the whole Kaspit article in an auto-translator and it was delightful (auto-translators often have that effect). I’m not sure how to interpret AIPAC’s role in all this. It suits the US to pretend that AIPAC is dragging it around and trying to push it into things. Israel could be encouraged to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran, then the US would come in as damage limiters and blame Israel for war-mongering. Most USAians, to be frank, would buy this, and it would neutralise the neocons for another decade or so. AIPAC itself can be regarded as something like the right-wing south Korean organisations maintained by the US’s “old China hands,” which constantly agitate about the North Korean nuclear threat. They are cogs in US foreign policy, and their status as US stooges is totally obvious. But with Israel, the spectre of the US Jewish fifth column is very easily aroused, which makes it a very tempting option for US policymakers to use Israel against US targets, then scapegoat it.
Philos
@Aristeides, I actually think Liberman is more moderate than Netenyahu. Certainly Netenyahu has been good at cultivating an image of personal moderation but I think in actuality it is Liberman that can be reasoned with and not Netenyahu.
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I’m thinking I should write a book titled, “The Israel Lobby and Israeli Foreign & Domestic Policy: The Role of American Jews in Undermining Israeli Sovereignty and Self-Determination”
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I’ve joked often with my friends that the country that will likely have the most ferocious outburst of Antisemitism will be Israel. All the primers are there: a visible minority (e.g., Haradim), the perception that foreign Jews control the wealth and growing anti-capitalism. The question is, how long until we have an Israeli politician screeching, “Israel for Israelis! Jews out!”
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For the literal minded I am being sarcastic
Rowan Berkeley
Philos, does the phrase “the negation of the Diaspora” ring any bells?
aristeides
Philos – I’ve heard similar. Like – Israelis refusing to live in Jerusalem, where there are “too many Jews.” Of course, they meant Haredim.
Rowan Berkeley
Wait a minute — you put “too many Jews” in inverted commas, as if it was a verbatim quote. Are you really saying you’ve heard those words used by Israelis (who are of course, Jews too)?
Rowan Berkeley
Ben Kaspit wrote: “AIPAC evaluated that based on polls, Obama will also be the next president. Bibi knew not to go to the campaign when Obama is in his second term. It’s a dangerous gamble. Between Obama and Bibi is a deep loathing, and Obama might try to do to Bibi what Bill Clinton did to him in 1999, and what Bush Sr did to Yitzhak Shamir in 1992.” But now Netanyahu has extended his government back to its original length, i.e. until Nov 2013. Does this mean Netanyahu thinks Romney will win in Nov 2012, or that he just doesn’t feel threatened by anything Obama might try to do to him during a second term?