Israelis are ever so sensitive to threats from “the other side,” be it Palestinian militant groups or Iran’s leaders. It’s understandable; nobody likes vows to wipe his or her country off the map. Yet for some reason, the same people become tone-deaf when it’s Israel that threatens its neighbors. A well-known example is Israel’s current foreign minister’s offer - made in a meeting with foreign ambassadors! – to bomb the Aswan Dam in case of a confrontation with Egypt, causing the flooding of vast areas around the Nile. Except for some feeble condemnations, Lieberman paid no political price for his words, and Binyamin Netanyahu obviously thinks that he should serve as Israel’s face to the world.
Yesterday, the IDF’s Northern Command held a briefing for reporters to mark six years since the Second Lebanon War. It was all about warnings and threats. An unnamed Northern Command general was especially gung ho. This is from Ynet:
“Any escalation can result in rocket fire on central Israel,” a senior officer said.
“The next war will be different. We’ll have to attack with more force, more violently, to halt any assault of the home front as quickly as possible.”
“Even if we go only after their military infrastructure… There will be a completely different ratio between the explosives used on Lebanon and those used on Israel.”
Another quote, found only in the Hebrew version of the article, sounds like something out of Game of Thrones:
We will kill 13 of every 15 enemy soldiers, so that two will be left to tell their commanders what happened.
You could try excuse this as “army talk” (though this was a meeting with the press, not with the troops), but there was also this quote:
Commenting on the Goldstone Report, penned following Operation Cast Lead, the officer said that the damage caused to Lebanon by such a conflict with Israel “Will make Goldstone pale in comparison – because Hezbollah has chosen to make the most cynical use of civilian population centers.”
Whether you accepted it or not, the Goldstone report blamed Israel for deliberately targeting civilian population. Is this general actually promise to do it again, only worse? What would I think about this if I were Lebanese? I guess pretty much what Israelis feel when they hear Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
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Prometheus
The Goldstone report worth even less that the paper it’s printed on.
As of Lebanon – if you live in a country ruled by terrorist organisation and do nothing to change it – face the consequences.
Noam Sheizaf
@Prometheus: This post was about rhetoric, and you pretty much proved my point. Following your logic, one could say “you occupy another people – face the consequences.”
aristeides
Israel announces in advance its intention to commit war crimes. And why not – it knows it always gets away with it.
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The world should act to disarm this rogue state.
Richard Witty
Lebanon is Israel’s flank.
Iran threatens (directly and indirectly), and Hezbollah confirms, that it will take Iran’s direction/cues, to attack Israeli civilians in “retaliation” for even a limited and strictly military strike in Iran proper.
By threatening to escalate in Lebanon, it adds to the deterrent of Hezbollah. They will certainly think twice before taking Iran’s cues now.
Morality is constructed by either:
1. Accountability – You will suffer if you do wrong.
2. Ethics/morality – We voluntarily seek to help, and/or at least not harm.
One’s own internal intent, combined with responding to the norm of the neighborhood, combined with what is possible in the circumstances.
So long as Iran and Hezbollah refuse even any conditional recognition or relationship with Israel, the dynamics will remain.
William Burns
You’d think, if there was one lesson to be drawn from the history of Israel, it’s “Don’t Invade Lebanon.”
Piotr Berman
I though the problem with IDF tactics in 2006 was not an insufficient use of force, but bombing kind of everywhere, while Hezbollah was firing rockets only in some places.
And Hezbollah was using antique, obsolete rockets, while the consensus is that next time, they will be able to reach further and with more accuracy. If so, they will probably spare residencial areas and concentrate on destroying something more strategic, like the port and industries in Haifa.
In any case, I doubt if Hezbollah would attack first, whatever Israel does in Iran. This will make weak Israeli diplomatic position, which would be already terrible in the aftermath of an attack on Iran. I suspect that interviews with Ynet will remain the main testosteron outlet for Northern Command.
Prometheus
@Noam
Following your logic, one could say “you occupy another people – face the consequences.”
Yep. That’s exactly what we are doing here for last 65 or so years.
As of occupation:
Military occupation is effective provisional control of a certain power over a territory which is not under the formal sovereignty of that entity, without the volition of the actual sovereign.
Who was the legal sovereing of territories (people) in question from 1929 to 1979?
Philos
I think it’s worth mentioning that for a so-called democracy the rhetoric is similar to the language used by tyrannies. When was the last time you heard a British or American general say something like that to the press? The 19th Century? We all know that the DPR Koreas, the Sudans, the Irans and the Chinas make such hotheaded and bellicose threats – but a democracy? Never. Churchill didn’t promise to burn German cities and make the blitz look like fireworks even if that’s what he did. He spoke of fighting them on the beaches and then of liberating Europe.
Prometheus
@William
“You’d think, if there was one lesson to be drawn from the history of Israel, it’s “Don’t Invade Lebanon.””
Yep. Don’t invade. Just bomb the shit out of it.
Richard SM
I remember during Sharon road-map negotiations to release thousands of political prisoners held by Israel, three-quarters of them awaiting trial, government minister Avigdor Lieberman said:
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“It would be better to drown these prisoners in the Dead Sea if possible, since that’s the lowest point in the world.”
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If Bashar Assad came out with something so blatant today – that he will drown all the political prisoners held by Syria – it would probably be used as justification for western intervention.
max
@Richard – “Avigdor Lieberman said” vs Assad did
@Philos – “the rhetoric” vs “even if that’s what he did”
Do you still have feet to shoot yourself in?
You prefer massacres to words?
William Burns
Yeah, Prometheus, just bomb, don’t invade, the strategy that led to US victory over North Vietnam.
Jogortha
And one wonders why the Lebanese, even those who hate Hizballah, are not fond of Israel.. even more interesting is the inability to see that this threat and counter-threat cycle is unproductive. As of “bombing the shit out of Lebanon”, I have news on that front: it didn’t work before, and will not work in the future. What would change around is the real possibility that Hizballah would “bomb the shit out of Israel” and that as of now, Israel has no real way of stopping that from happening except not launching an attack, so, it’s best if both sides refrain from this bravado, it’s not productive, and will only complicate an already complicated situation. Deterrence is working on both sides, and that is not a bad thing for the sake of avoiding another pointless war.
Hostage
A small nit pick RE: “Whether you accepted it or not, the Goldstone report blamed Israel for deliberately targeting civilian population.”
The report said that Israel had deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure which had no military objective(i.e. collective punishment or persecution). The report also highlighted Israel’s failure to apply the principle of distinction between civilian and military objects and persons, but did not say that there was a deliberate policy to target civilian persons.
aristeides
Jogortha – you’re assuming that the parties involved don’t actually desire another pointless war. That, unfortunately, is exactly what Israel does want.
Prometheus
“And one wonders why the Lebanese, even those who hate Hizballah, are not fond of Israel.. ”
True. There is three major reasons behind that.
1 – The wars of course.
2 – The cowardly pull-out by Ehud Baraq who proven that only stupid trust Jews.
3 – The inability of IDF to get rid of Nasralla.
“Deterrence is working on both sides, and that is not a bad thing for the sake of avoiding another pointless war.”
True.
However there is a small problem. Actually, two small problems.
1 – There is a lot of Arabs who hate Israel more that love their own children
2 – Arabs tend to forget about that normally they are not winning any wars, so their memories have to be refreshen once a while.
Prometheus
@Aristeides
“That, unfortunately, is exactly what Israel does want.”
That is in your head, dude.
max
@aristeides, with your view, you must be a supporter of Netanyahu as he managed to avoid wars throughout his long tenure as PM
Danny
This officer was talking out of his ass. He probably watched too many episodes of 24, or something like that. I guess being a senior officer in the IDF doesn’t require too much brains, but come on! You would think that after dodging the Goldstone report by the skin of their teeth, Israel would be much more careful about that, even in their rhetoric.
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The third Lebanon war will look very similar to the second Lebanon war, and will probably involve some 1500-2000 dead Lebanese and some 100-200 dead Israelis. It will end EXACTLY like the second one did – stalemate. Israel will never again be allowed to conquer Lebanon and occupy it for long period of time. It will simply not get a green light for that, ever. The most Israelis can “hope” for is around a 10:1 kill ratio in their favor. That’s about it.
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Oh, and IDF generals – do your jobs and get as professional as possible (next time around, try to avoid making unrealistic, bombastic objectives for your wars). Leave the talking to people with an I.Q. greater than an average Tel Aviv taxi driver.
Jake Singer
Israel’s IDF comments and actions are uniting it’s enemies. Pretty soon you will have all the Shia and Muslim Brotherhood organizations united against Israel. That is, Iran, Southern Lebanon, Gaza and Egypt. With wild cards like the 2 Million Israeli “Arab” Citizens” and the West Bank. It’s sophisticated missiles and weaponry on all sides, it will be an Armageddon. Israel only needs to lose one decisive war, the surrounding Arabs only need to win one. Eventually, they will.
However, Israel needs to take the initiative and change the tone and actions to ones of peace. Integrate with with their own citizens and neighbors. The first step is to neuter the far right.
aristeides
Max – if I supposed this was Netanyahu’s actual intention, I would be. But as I suppose that he is in fact seething with the frustration of being blocked in the warmaking he desires, I’m not.
Kolumn9
The premise of the rhetoric is simple. If Hizbollah unilaterally and cynically rejects the rules of war such as the basic principles of not using civilian areas as military installations then there is simply no way to beat them except to deal with them based on the rules they play by. Use a mosque to store munitions, we bomb the mosque. Use a house as an entryway into a bunker network, we destroy the house. The European rules for war do not apply here. Those rules are based on the premise of mutual agreement to the basic rules and on the premise of soverelign states. Hezbollah thinks it found a loophole. It must be proven wrong. The UNHRC can issue whatever report it wants at that point.
Kolumn9
@Jake, that is a common framing of the conflict, yet one that has been false since Israel achieved nuclear capability. The Arabs can’t actually ‘win’. They might be able to destroy Israel but they would have very little time to celebrate.
Danny
@KULMAN9 – How long do you think Israel will be able to rape Lebanon before the Obama, Hollande, Cameron and Merkel tell it it must agree to a cease fire? I say about a week. At that point, Israel will sustain so much damage from the rockets, which will rain on Tel Aviv and, I predict, even Jerusalem, it will have no choice but agree. Like in 2006, Israel will have much egg on its stupid face in addition to the scorn of the entire world.
Kolumn9
Danny, I would say Israel has between three weeks and a month for a localized conflict or longer if it is part of a wider inflagration. That is sufficient time to clear out the Hezbollah installations in South Lebanon and inflict massive damage on the country which it governs. The 2006 war demonstrated the flaw of making wild claims of goals while using extremely limited means. The next war will escalate faster and will see massive destruction on Lebanon. The scorn from some circles is in any case unavoidable and thus immaterial. This is what happens when your every action is demonized regardless of its actual severity; there really are no major disincentives to using harsher measures.
Philos
@kolumn 9, “the European rules of war don’t apply here.” I think you just proved Noam’s point
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@Max, so you’re saying it’s important not to announce your intentions to commit crimes against humanity and just do them (like Assad)?
Joel
“.. because Hezbollah has chosen to make the most cynical use of civilian population centers.”
Is it anyone’s contention that Hezbollah DOESN’T make cynical use of civilian population centers?
BTW. I believe that if there is another war with Lebanon it will Hezbollah that will invade northern Israel.
aristeides
Joel – initiating hostilities or in response?
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Israeli apologists love to make free with the claim that its enemy “make cynical use of civilian population centers.” This is because Israel wages its wages on the land of other people, including their population centers – eg, Beirut.
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I’d like to see the responses if the war were for once brought home to Israel. Does anyone suppose that IDF forces will withdraw from Israel’s population centers to conduct its operations?
Richard Witty
Its preparation for a limited strike on Iran.
Testing the degree of MAD that Iran will do, or has the power to do.
Danny
“Danny, I would say Israel has between three weeks and a month for a localized conflict or longer if it is part of a wider inflagration”
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You’re dreaming in technicolor. The fun GWB years of blank checks are long gone. Obama will NEVER allow Israel to rape and pillage Lebanon. Netanyahu will beg and plead, but in the end will end the assault after a few days. Lebanon is not Gaza. It’s time Israeli morons like you realized you do not have blank checks to destroy and kill with impunity. I hope Israel is shamed in submission like it was in 2006.
Jogortha
@ Prometheus, even if we were to accept your logic about Arabs’ hate of Israel, the scenario you paint doesn’t bode well for Israel in the long run given other historical precedents. You’re essentially saying that war is going to be happening time and again.
no empire or state survived that kind of onslaught for ever, take the Muslim rule in Spain, it took the christians 8 centuries to take over Iberia from the Muslims. The christians lost many many times, but in the long run overwhelmed their technologically and scientifically superior opponents. The result is today’s Spain being free of Muslim rule for 6 centuries now..
jjj
@aristeides
Being venemous does not necessarily guarantees ones hold of the truth.
Israel does not launch attacks from population centers.
At most, you can argue that the IDF c&cc is located in Tel-Aviv, but even that’s about to change.
Moreover, rarely was the the military itelf, the target of Hamas/Hizb-allah missile attacks. It was always about civilians – the more the better.
OOTH, Israel has far less interest to harm civilians, if only for the likes of you who deny the very right to pronounce its name, let alone its existence.
Greg Pollock
Why would the Hebrew and English versions of the article differ in this rather significant way?
Gill Katz
There are ‘disputed areas’ not occupied territories. Go and read San Remo Agreement.
Samaria and Judea are Israel.. archaeologically, historically and legally. Go and research it.
Kolumn9
Danny, I was being polite, but let me now respond in kind. It is time retarded morons like you understood that when the Israeli army goes into Lebanon there isn’t a damn thing that anyone can do about it except make noise. Since there is nothing that anyone can do about it the Americans will try to keep the noise down by stalling so that the retards at the UN don’t write out checks that no one is willing to cash. This will last for two or three weeks until the Americans get tired of stalling and start asking for the Israelis to hurry up and finish their mission. At that point the Israelis get another week or so before the technicalities of a cease-fire are established. Wtf did you think would happen when the IDF went into Lebanon? The twitterverse in its supreme power would rise up and form a protective bubble around Lebanon? Get your head out of your ass and look at the real world the way it is, not the way left-wing morons want it to be.
Prometheus
@ Prometheus, even if we were to accept your logic about Arabs’ hate of Israel, the scenario you paint doesn’t bode well for Israel in the long run given other historical precedents. You’re essentially saying that war is going to be happening time and again.
no empire or state survived that kind of onslaught for ever, take the Muslim rule in Spain, it took the christians 8 centuries to take over Iberia from the Muslims. The christians lost many many times, but in the long run overwhelmed their technologically and scientifically superior opponents. The result is today’s Spain being free of Muslim rule for 6 centuries now..
Hmmm. So now you are saying that while the Spaniards have had the right to fight the Muslims and have their lands back, Jews have no such right.
Is that what you are saying?
Prometheus
“Obama will NEVER allow Israel to rape and pillage Lebanon.”
Obama? ROFL.
Obama is one of the most impotent (the most?) US presidents ever. Obama can’t do shit. Let alone to tell an independent state what to do.
un2here
False premises leads to false conclusion. If you believe an enemy has treatened to “wipe your country off the map” and because of this expects support from the world community – but the community knows that this threat has never been uttered and exists only in your mind, then you will be shunned for starting an insane and unjust war. Just telling …
un2here
@Prometheus – Tell us about the Christian expulsion of the Iberians?
Rafael
As if anyone can trust Israel when Hezbollah is on the table.
un2here
@Gill Katz – Do you not find it problematic to claim “Judea and Samaria” as Jewish lands, when the majority of the Jewish population then, in ancient Palestine, went with Christianity some 2000 years ago? I most certainly do! You are claiming a heritage that isn’t yours to claim, and frankly, it’s getting pretty annoying.
Jack
Threats like these prove the danger from the israeli regime.
Not only do they mock Goldstone but they mock the crimes they commited systamtically in Gaza 2008-2009 plus they use threats which is in contradiction of the UN charter.
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Little do they do that Hizbollah were in the beginning a marginalized group with basically no support – after the 2006 war the support for Hizbollah among lebanese all religious groups skyrocketed, now in 2010 they even managed to get elected and have good ties with the PM. Their popularity and even existence is solely based on the continued belligerence and continued occupation of lebanese land. Israel must realize that they cannot fight a assymetric group so their threats are desperate attempts and their cocky attitude stems from the possible regime change in Syria.
Jogortha
@Prometheus What I’m saying is that your way of thinking ignores/plays down the central problem: Israel cannot live for ever in a hostile environment. it cannot go on eternally imposing its will on its neighbors by the sword. In other words, the Arabs can afford to lose for another century of confrontation and they’ll still be around, and will still be rejecting Israel.
States, kingdoms, empires decline over time, Israel is no exception to that rule of history. The only question is how long does that process take. Decades, centuries? the end result remains the same.
Marco
@jack (off), perhaps you were asleep. The IDF left Lebanon at the start of the millennium.
Danny
“when the Israeli army goes into Lebanon there isn’t a damn thing that anyone can do about it except make noise”
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I guess that’s why Israel is so afraid of the Iranian bomb. When Iran gets its nukes (and it will) the cowardly IDF will have to think twice and maybe thrice about going into a sovereign Arab state to destroy everything in its path.
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Also, please take into account in Obama’s second term in office, the automatic veto in the UNSC, which Israel has come to take for granted, may not be so automatic anymore. Israel should really think long and hard about any long-term effects of its aggression.
Marco
@un2here, I find that your ignorance of basic history to be astonishing; matched only by your willingness to advertise such a deficit.
Jack
Marco,
Not the time to be a wiseguy when you dont know the basics.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shebaa_farms#Research_findings
sh
@Joel – Is it anyone’s contention that Hezbollah DOESN’T make cynical use of civilian population centers?
Yes, mine.
Their use of their own civilian population centers is no more cynical than Israel’s use of its civilian population centers. As we all know, there’s all sorts of stuff that has no business being right in the middle of cities like Haifa, Dimona; and those, like kibbutzim with “slicks” and Nahal units stationed in them are the places everyone knows about. Both Israel and Lebanon are small countries in which nothing is far from civilian populations. Hezbollah fights from its civilian population centers because they happen to be on Israel’s path (both ground and air) to everywhere else in Lebanon. And Israel has repeatedly tried to turn Lebanon’s Shia turf into its private, by now very bloody, red carpet to whatever target in Lebanon they have set themselves. Cynical of Hezbollah to have tried to prevent that? If you say so. But then, wasn’t it cynical of us last time to have swamped their civilian population centers and lands with cluster bombs on the way out?
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It’s odd and rather telling that when high ranking officers and politicos say that next time things will be different, it turns out to be the same old same old, only a bigger portion. No new strategy (like dialog, perish the thought) but the same errors of judgment as before in a bigger dosage. It took 18 years for Israel to internalize that it can’t do Lebanon, but that wore off after four years. The next lesson lasted six and now we’re brewing more of same.
Prometheus
@JOGORTHA
End is the same in any case.
Still, I’d like to hear from you why you think that Spanish have had their right to return their lands, and Jews have no such right.
As of treat to neighbors – it’s total 100% blatant lie. Israel imposes no treat whatsoever to any of it’s neighbors as long as them impose no treat to Israel.
Arabs, in their masses, despise Palestinians – that’s why they still live in refugee camps in their “brethren”‘s countries.
However there is another side to the coin – religious. Don’t forget that this conflict is first and foremost of religious nature – Muslims just won’t give up control of Jerusalem, Jews won’t do it as well and Christians will certainly not let Muslims have it either, so we have a stalemate here, no matter what ignorant and misinformed people will think, say or do.
Jack
Prometheus,
Israel with its policies is not solely a threat to itself with its warmongering leaders, but to the palestinians, region and also a threat to world peace. Just note how they trying to get western world to attack Iran. Or just note how they keep rejecting peace with palestinians and arab states. Of course their policies are a threat.
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You cant also not compare what happend in Iberia hundreds of years ago with the conflict of today. There are international law clearly forbidding any annexation of land through war.