Comments on: Can critique of Iran strike by security figures change Israeli public opinion?

By: Greg Pollock

Greg Pollock — Tue, 01 May 2012 08:17:51 +0000

Aristeides,
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The US is not immune. During WW II Japanese Americans living in the Pacific coast states were interred. This came at the demand of the general in charge of the Pacific home front who, obviously, had little to do. Those in the Attorney General’s office were forcefully against this plan. I have read that FDR followed the general’s recomendation because, beginning a war, FDR did not want to upset his command. By the battle of Midway it was clear the Japanese could not launch an attack on the US coast. Yet the camps continued to be.
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It is all easy fine to say how evil the IDF is. Ask instead what it would take to make your country like that. The US has never been at quasi war for decades; rather, one of its miricales was the demobilization of one of the largest armies the world has ever seen while still retaining a growing economy.
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If the IDF has become a quasi autonomous branch of government, I want to know exactly how political discourse is thereby affected. I want to know how the rules are developed, trial by trial, between the contention of this three branches, Knesset as government, Court, and IDF.
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If you want to find a way to channel this conflict, you have to think beyond this conflict. Sorry for the arrogance, but this is my stand.

By: Rowan Berkeley

Rowan Berkeley — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 16:21:08 +0000

What does the above poll data tell us? I think it tells us that the public know perfectly well that the US, not Israel, will decide who attacks Iran and when, and that the whole pseudo-dispute going on is faked up on US instructions.

By: Rowan Berkeley

Rowan Berkeley — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 16:14:45 +0000

A Smith Research poll sponsored by the JPost late last week indicated that Likud would win more than twice as many mandates as any other party if the prime minister advanced the next general election. According to the results, Likud would win 31 seats, followed by Labor and Yisrael Beytenu with 15 each, Kadima with 13, Yair Lapid’s new Atid Party with 11, Shas eight, United Torah Judaism six, National Union four, and Habayit Hayehudi and Meretz three each. The three Arab parties together would win 11 mandates. Altogether, the Right-Center bloc would win 67 seats and the Left-Center bloc 53. The split in the current Knesset is 65-55.

By: aristeides

aristeides — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 14:31:57 +0000

Greg – It’s a wellknown aphorism. In normal nations the state has an army. In Israel, the IDF has a state.

By: Rowan Berkeley

Rowan Berkeley — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 07:18:27 +0000

There are several reasons why Israel cannot launch a unilateral air attack on Iran. First of all, until Hezbollah’s supply lines through Syria are cut and Hezbollah has lost its capability to maintain and fuel its rockets, such an attack would invite an immediate retaliation from these which would devastate Israel as far south as Haifa. Second, an air attack on Iran by Israel using non-nuclear arms would be ineffective. Fordow, the main enrichment complex, is designed to withstand anything short of the giant 30,000-lb GBU-57 MOPs, which can only be delivered by B-52s or B-2s with specially reinforced bomb bays, and I don’t see Obama & Co lending any of these to Bibi.

By: Greg Pollock

Greg Pollock — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 05:02:48 +0000

I am beginning to see the IDF as nearly a seperate branch of government. Israel has been, mostly, in some sort of war state since foundation; the Knesset strikes me as still something of a war council of groups (parties). The IDF, or former elite from them, will stand up to PM policy (or rumored policy), essentially placing a bar on some actions–or challenging the PM to cross that bar. The IDF refuses High Court opinions when it comes to the “security” of its own and, for several years, refused to shift part of the Wall (fence) as ordered by the Court. That most Jewish citizens must serve in the IDF becomes kind of a populist base, independent of party organiztion.
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There seems to be three branches to the State, the Knesset (and its derived cabinent with PM), the IDF, and the Court. Israel’s “constitution” seems to be the relative veto power of each over the others, which relative strength depending on issue regime. (So the Court has now stayed the removal of settlers it has ordered by 60 days, giving the government time to “state its case,” a de facto short term, maybe longer, veto over the Court.) These vetos or bars seem essential to the evolution of Israeli political thought. In coaltion warfare, groups can similarly shift outcomes by threatening to pull out or not support an action. Silent is the polity itself, which seems to view all of this from the outside. J14 had no real effect on the three powers, as far as I can see. And I know of no evidence that a major party wants to change this structure by embracing J14; nor evidence that a new party derived from J14 is in the works (although how would I know?).
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Under this “analysis,” it may take a major failure of the 3 branch veto system to instigate at least a true call of change.
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But there is a sleeper: Israeli Arab citizens, embedded in the Israeli encomny. Civil rigts action via the Courts might find a populist foothold for the Court istelf. Of course, I don’t expect this to happen any time soon.

By: Arnon Schwanzingera

Arnon Schwanzingera — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 22:58:08 +0000

BLU: “There will be no US attack on Iran after this – the game just got gamechanged with this ‘General’s Revolt’”

About a month back all major Israeli papers ran with a headline saying Mossad has cut back its overt actions in Iran. Supposedly, so the story went, to avoid detection. This was the top headline over the weekend, yes?

I believe this was right after the “Iranians, We will never bomb you, We love you” campaign reached the same papers.

So we all got the implicit message that Israel is not going to attack Iran. And that diplomatic backroom deals are being struck. This is just the actors playing their parts dutifully to diffuse the warmongering – once they know they’re truly off the table. And, of course, keep the myth alive that people’s actions on facebook actually matter. That’s important too.

By: Paul

Paul — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 21:04:39 +0000

But here’s the question most Israelis never consider and I doubt has been polled:

Do you belive that bombing Iran (or any other country) can destroy the region’s opposition to the occupation of Palstine and dispossession of the Palestinians?

Or in short: can bombs destroy ideas?

Of course, it’s a question the ‘other side’ should also answer.

By: caden

caden — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 20:21:01 +0000

Not feeling the love Rich.

By: RichardL

RichardL — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 19:30:14 +0000

You are an interesting creature Caden. Racist, vulgar, aggressive, condescending, arrogant, advocate of violence and apparently lacking the milk of human kindness to all except your own kind. Do you consider yourself to be a typical Zionist?