It’s true, as of today a military escalation is unlikely. At least, that’s what all the experts and all the analysts are saying. Yet I can’t help but feel the Middle East has never been so close to war as it is today. And I don’t say this lightly.

As one who has lived in this region my whole life, I have seen how situations can deteriorate so rapidly, before you even manage to blink.

All it takes is the “right” timing for a terror attack, a lethal response, a movement of tanks misinterpreted, the repositioning of anti-aircraft batteries to be misunderstood, another flotilla to be taken over et voila – you’ve got yourself an escalation.

And here, today, we have all the ingredients needed to make that lethal cocktail. All three parties, Israel, Egypt and Turkey have acted so irrationally over the past few weeks, one can only wonder how much worse it can get.

I know, I know, most of +972 readers (and probably writers) believe Israel is at fault here. Well, it indeed is. But let me tell you something you might not like to hear: Turkey and Egypt ain’t no saints, either.

The three stooges

1. Israel – as my colleague Noam Sheizaf pointed out in his excellent analysis, Israel has shown a total misunderstanding of what is going on in Egypt since the fall of Mubarak. It also let a good agreement with Turkey slip through its hands. And after all this, the prime minister can’t reign in his own foreign minister who likes to fan the flames in every direction possible.

2. Egypt – The military government was right to demand an apology for the killing of its soldiers on Egyptian soil after the terror attack in Eilat. But Israel could have just as easily demanded an apology from Egypt for precisely that attack which originated on its soil and which was perpetrated by some of its citizens. (And of course, Israel would have to explain – and apologize, surely – why it immediately attacked Gaza if *all* the terrorists were Egyptian).

One does not need to be an expert to see the winds of change in Cairo that have resulted in the lax security not only in Sinai – but also around the Israeli Embassy, where the Israeli flag was taken down two weeks ago and which was stormed by a mob just yesterday as the army stood and watched. Ynet reports that the head of the ruling Supreme Military Council General Mohamed Tantawi did not even answer Netanyahu’s calls when things were going down. It was Obama’s intervention that saved the day.

3. Turkey – I guess it’s safe to say the cat is out of the bag when it comes to Turkish PM Erdogan: an apology for the Mavi Marmara was not what he was looking for. You want to downgrade relations? Fine, go ahead. But when you start spewing war vocabulary, promising to accompany flotillas to Gaza with the Turkish navy, well, dem’s fightin’ words.
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If anyone ever needed any proof Erdogan is looking to pick a fight, you have it right there. Someone is reminiscing the good ‘ole Ottoman days of yore.

And if anyone ever needed any proof of the void needed to be filled after the Americans left town, you have it right there as well. It might be U.S. weakness, or it could be an intentional Obama doctrine we have yet to fully understand – but whatever it is, it’s wreaking havoc in this place.

Meanwhile, someone needs to get these kids to calm down. Before somebody gets hurt.