After Schalit, Israel likely to move (further) right

Larry Derfner By Larry Derfner October 13, 2011 | Edit

The 1-for-1,000 deal is probably the most “left-wing” thing Netanyahu’s ever done. The international community will now give him some slack, while the settlers, Lieberman et al will cash in their chits.

The deal to release Gilad Schalit was the right decision, and despite my lack of love for Netanyahu, I give him a lot of credit for pushing it through. But it seems to me that Schalit’s release, in addition to being an undeniable security risk for Israelis, is going to give the Right yet another boost, and make relations with the Palestinians even worse, as hard to imagine as that may be.

Freeing 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including many terrorists who took part in deadly attacks on Israeli civilians, is the most “left-wing” thing Netanyahu has ever done, with the possible exception of the Wye agreement with Arafat in his first term. The right wing – the settlers, Lieberman, Shas, much of Likud – now have some serious chits to cash in. Haaretz reported that during the cabinet debate, Shas leader Eli Yishai pressed for the release of Jewish terrorists from prison. arguing, “It’s the right thing to do as part of the balances in Israel’s society,” and that while it wouldn’t “undo the releasing of hundreds of (Palestinian) prisoners, it may sweeten the bitter pill.”

I don’t know if Netanyahu is going let Jewish terrorists out of jail, and I definitely don’t think the Schalit deal gives him the political capital to bomb Iran, as some have suggested. Nothing would give him that sort of capital; if Israel bombs Iran, we will be going it effectively alone. But the deal does get the world off his back for awhile – the “international community” will give him credit for taking a brave decision, for showing flexibility, for what it may wishfully, mistakenly interpret as a “confidence-building measure” for the Palestinians.

In short, after the Schalit release, the Right will be breathing down Bibi’s neck, while the UN, Europe, etc. will take a couple of steps back. (Still, I hope like hell the release goes through as planned; after five years of negotiations, it’s a matter of in for 95 cents, in for a dollar, especially when, as Netanyahu credibly says, the changes in the Middle East mean the window of opportunity for getting Schalit back could well be closing.)

The worst political outcome of the deal, though, is the weakening, not to say humiliation, of Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, to the great benefit of Hamas. It’s amazing that there are no doubt many Israelis who feel gratified now to be teaching Abbas a lesson after that dirty trick he pulled at the UN. Understanding that Hamas is gaining big time at Abbas’ expense, something that’s not exactly good for the Jews, would require much greater foresight than these Israeli nationalists possess.

And once again, there’s no evading the fact that putting hundreds of Palestinians “with blood on their hands” on the streets, including the streets of the West Bank, poses the risk that Israelis will get killed on account of this deal. If that happens, the “peace index” will sink even lower.

I’m sorry to be such a pessimist. I think the deal for Schalit shows a humanity in Israeli society that’s inspiring to witness. But the political mentality in this country,  the attitude toward all those “thems” out there, is something else again – and after this great act of solidarity with Schalit and his family, this heartening display of national sacrifice, I’m afraid the “us vs. them” state of mind around here is going to kick back in. Probably even with something of a vengeance.

Larry Derfner

I was a columnist and feature writer for The Jerusalem Post, as well as the correspondent in Israel for the U.S. News and World Report, for many years. I wrote feature articles for the Sunday Times of London during the second intifada, and have been writing for American Jewish publications since 1990. Politically, I would describe myself as an ultra-liberal Zionist; as journalist Bradley Burston put it, I’m “probably as far left as a centrist can be.” I was born in New York, grew up in Los Angeles and moved to Israel in 1985.